In a world of 24 hour news cycles and instant worldwide communication, what is not said can be illuminating particularly when it comes to political priorities. The last few months have highlighted once again the disconnect between expert opinion and the general public on the one hand and our political leadership on the other.

Late last year, several reports suggested that our current perception of the challenge posed by climate change needs recalibration; and not in a positive way. An analysis by the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) suggested that the effects of climate change could be harsher than previously predicted. PricewaterhouseCoopers’ (PWC) Low Carbon Economy Index fundamentally challenged any assumptions that the current rate of decarbonisation would be sufficient to significantly impact on climate change.

 “The new reality is a much more challenging future in terms of planning, financing and predictability,” according to PwC’s Jonathan Grant, director, sustainability and climate change. “Even doubling our current annual rates of decarbonisation globally every year to 2050, would still lead to 6^oC, making governments’ ambitions to limit warming to 2^oC appear highly unrealistic.” 

The World Bank’s report, also published last November, warns “we’re on track for a 4°C warmer world marked by extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise”. The United Nations’ Environment Program’s (UNEP) 2012 Emissions Gap Report forecast that greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 could be between 8 billion and 13 billion metric tonnes (14.33 billion tons) above what is needed to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius. It also suggests that global greenhouse-gas emissions already have passed the point where the worst effects of global warming could be averted. The World Economic Forum’s 2013 Global Risks report has prioritised climate change as one of the top three threats over the next decade. 

While US elected representatives were studiously avoiding mentioning ‘climate’ and ‘change’ in the same sentence, at least until Sandy hit the eastern seaboard, other arms of the same government were taking a very different tack. A report prepared by the National Research Council for the US military and intelligence community concluded that climate change is accelerating and will pose a significant threat to US national security and stability globally. Then, published last Friday (11th January, 2013), the draft US National Climate Assessment unequivocally states that rising temperatures are “… due primarily to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuel”. In fact, in their 1,146 page report the panel of 240 scientists concluded that the US is already experiencing the impact of climate change. It also suggests that current US government efforts to reduce emissions are “not close to sufficient”. 

Even public opinion in the US, where climate change is a highly politically charged topic, appears to be moving towards the view that global warming is a real threat. A recent poll by Associated Press-GfK suggests nearly 4 out of every 5 Americans now believe that temperatures are rising and that the US will face serious problems if global warming is not addressed effectively. Meanwhile business and local government across the US are attempting to drive energy efficiency and sustainability, sometimes more ambitiously than existing government goals. Numerous opinion polls in the UK over the last couple of years have shown the widespread support for renewable energy and concern about the effects of climate change. 

Contrast this with the lack of leadership from key political figures who could and should be providing a lead. First, there was the US presidential campaign in which climate change has the most cursory mention. Then there was the absence of a decarbonisation target in the UK’s Energy Bill published before Christmas. Touted as “the biggest transformation to Britain’s electricity market since privatisation”, the glaring omission has done nothing to strengthen this government’s green credentials. The absence of any climate change priority during the UK’s G8 presidency is a significant opportunity missed for David Cameron to show real leadership in this area. However, on a more positive note the Irish presidency of the EU has at least highlighted a number of climate and environment-related priorities for its term. It remains to be seen whether they can muster substantive progress. 

So why the disconnect? The psychology of risk and judgement plays an important role in how we engage with a topic on the scale of climate change. Chiemi Hayashi, head of research at the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network, has some thoughts in this regard. 

Commenting on the development, Ross Murphy, CEO of Turbowind Energy said, “With a thirty-year history in the industry, Dulas is one of the leading renewable energy companies in the UK. We’re delighted that they now will be able to offer the T400 to their clients as paof their portfolio.”

Mr Murphy added, “The T400 will be an excellent complement to Dulas’ product range offering a 15-year history of reliable operation, greater site suitability through three tip heights (including 45m), all European/UK components as well as excellent yield and site accessibility. We look forward to a long and fruitful relationship with Dulas.”

Sanjay Bowry, CEO, Dulas said, “We are very pleased to add the Turbowind T400 to our select range of medium scale turbines. It’s a great complement to our existing business. 

Dulas focus on generating the best returns for our customers and the T400 offers a great return on investment coupled with the security of a turbine with proven history of production and reliable operation.

The machine sits comfortably and unambiguously towards the top of the 100-500kW FiT  capacity range, and is available with a tip height below 50m for sensitive sites with aviation or landscape and visual restrictions.

We expect the T400 will prove very attractive for customers looking for a machine which maximises returns whilst minimising project and planning risk”

About Dulas 

For 30 years, Dulas have delivered trusted, reliable and high performing hydro, solar PV, wind energy and biomass (wood fuel) heating solutions for a wide range of customers. Specialist services from our highly experienced engineers include feasibility studies, planning and environmental assessments, system design, project management, turnkey installation, operation and maintenance services that deliver high energy returns.  Dulas supply and install the best performing medium scale wind turbines that will maximise income through the Feed-in Tariff. Our turbines range from 50kW to 500kW, are perfectly suited to British conditions and can be installed alone or in small groups. Our services include planning assistance, installation, commissioning, and project management post installation.

http://www.dulas.org.uk/

Visit the RenewableUK 2012 website  for further information. 

We hope to see you there!

The Turbowind Energy Team

In the case of wind energy, new research published this month in the journal Nature Climate Change suggests that wind energy has the potential to meet global energy demand many times over. Given estimated current global demand of 18TW, Kate Marvel and her colleagues estimate the potential for wind energy generation is approximately 400TW. They also claim that, “There is enough power in Earth’s winds to be a primary source of near-zero-emission electric power as the global economy continues to grow through the twenty-first century” and “It is likely that wind power growth will be limited by economic or environmental factors, not global geophysical limits”.

Ally these findings to factors such as the relative efficiency performance of wind versus fossil fuel sources (see the Guardian for analysis) and a picture beings to emerge of a highly efficient alternative with massive potential and substantial public support. The question then follows what is holding us back? We’d welcome your views on this question and any other points raised in this blog. 

Chief among them was research suggesting that previously held assumptions about the pace of climate change may underestimate its effects. Wednesday’s announcement by the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in Colorado of a new record low for Summer sea ice in the Arctic has reminded us of the tangible effects of climate change (see NASA’s satellite image of the Sept 16th minimum). The latest data continues a trend of decline over three decades, during which time the area of Summer ice lost approximates to a dozen United Kingdoms. The ‘big melt’ in the Arctic is now 18% greater than at the same time in 2007. 

The scale and pace of the Summer melt has taken many by surprise and prompted at least one authority on climate change to describe it as a “global disaster”. In a communication reported in The Guardian, the Professor of Ocean Physics at Cambridge, Dr. Peter Wadhams is quoted as saying, “Climate change is no longer something we can aim to do something about in a few decade’s time, and that we must not only urgently reduce CO² emissions but must urgently examine other ways of slowing global warning”. He went on to predict that we may see a total loss of Summer ice not in decades, as previously thought, but within the next four years. 

Earlier this month, research conducted by the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) revealed that 65% of people are fairly or very concerned about climate change. This was prior to the recent publicity surrounding the NSIDC’s announcement. Once again, DECC’s results reinforced the conclusion that the overwhelming majority of the British public are full square behind renewable energy, including onshore and offshore wind. Even higher levels of concern were reported in relation to energy security and future energy costs. 

Therefore, you might expect that public perception of the scale of the challenges facing us as a result of climate change would also reflect these views. However, this was not the case with only 2% citing climate change as the biggest challenge facing the UK today. Perhaps not surprisingly given the chastened times we are living in, unemployment was considered by far the biggest challenge by respondents. So what picture do these results paint? They suggest that government, industry and other stakeholders have effectively put the case for a renewable energy agenda. The public clearly appreciates that climate change is a real issue and that renewable energy is an important part of the solution. There even appears to be a degree of impatience with the pace of investment in renewable energy.  However, despite these views, there seems to be a disconnect between the public’s concerns regarding climate change/energy security and their perception of the scale of the challenge posed by climate change. 

We’d welcome your comments on whether you draw the same conclusions and if so, what might be the basis for such a disconnect? What are the implications for government policy, the renewables industry and the wind industry in particular? Let us know your thoughts. 

Turbowind Energy has appointed Enviko as its sales partner in Scotland for the Turbowinds T400-34 400kW wind turbine. Enviko can now add the T400-34 to its portfolio of leading wind turbine generators. The T400-34 offers a 15-year history of reliable operation, greater site suitability through three tip heights (including 45m), all European/UK components as well as excellent yield and site accessibility. We will also be offering installation and maintenance services to our customers for the T400-34.